June 11, Economic Pulse Central Banks and Key Data in the Spotlight

Key events for financial markets this week

 

This week, events with a major impact on the economy are expected in the global financial markets: central bank decisions and the publication of key economic data will be in the spotlight.

 

Fed Focus:

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting on Wednesday, and no changes in interest rates are expected. However, the market is eagerly awaiting updated economic forecasts that will likely signal two rate cuts before the end of 2024.

Inflation data for May, released just prior to the Fed’s announcement, will be critical. Further signs of weakening inflation could reinforce expectations of a rate cut, especially given recent economic data hinting at potential weakness.

Wall Street will be watching the Fed’s communications closely for clues as to whether the “soft landing” scenario that led to record highs remains plausible.

 

United Kingdom data:

Market participants will be closely watching the UK labor market report on Tuesday to gauge wage trends and their impact on the trajectory of the Bank of England’s rate cut.

Wednesday’s GDP data is expected to reflect a slowdown in growth from the robust growth seen in Q1. The release of the Labor Party manifesto, also on Wednesday, will be watched by markets as an indicator of their economic plans ahead of the July 4 election.

 

Bank of Japan:

The Bank of Japan’s two-day meeting concludes on Friday, where a possible reduction in the quantitative easing program is expected. Governor Ueda has already hinted at this possibility.

Markets expect a reduction in significant bond purchases, potentially around 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) per month.

 

G7:

The G7 meeting (June 13-16) will focus on financial support for Ukraine and addressing China’s industrial policy concerns.

Taylor Swift’s tour of Europe could have a temporary but potentially notable impact on service sector inflation.

This week promises to be a key week for financial markets: central bank decisions and economic data will shape investor sentiment and influence asset prices.

 

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Economic Calendar Events:

Monday, June 10, 2024

• China – Dragon Boat Festival
• No important economic data is expected to be released.

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

• UK: Labor market data (payrolls) – affecting expectations of a Bank of England rate cut.
• Auction of 10-year US dollar-denominated promissory notes

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

• USA: Inflation data for May – Crucial for the Fed’s policy outlook.
• USA: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – Rates are likely to remain unchanged.
• UK: April GDP data – Growth is expected to slow down.
• UK: Labor Party manifesto presentation – Markets are watching Labor’s plans ahead of the July election

Thursday, June 13, 2024

• G7 meeting (Italy) – Financial aid to Ukraine is in focus.
• US: initial jobless claims – little data.
• USA: 30-year bond auction

Friday, June 14, 2024

• G7 meeting (Switzerland) – Discussions on China’s industrial policy and EU elections.
• Japan: Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting – A reduction in quantitative easing is likely.

   

  During the week:

  Taylor Swift tour of Europe – Potential impact on service sector inflation.

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Key volume support and resistance levels

 

Volume analysis of futures contracts: Euro, Oil, S&P500 index.

This review used the weekly timeframe to show the key levels that were formed during the current contract.

 

On all charts volume support levels are marked in green color, and resistance levels are marked in red color. Each volume analysis level is indicated by two prices, as the levels are price ranges.