September 30, Economic Pulse – Key Events This Week

The Fed and interest rates:

The Fed recently began its interest rate cutting cycle with a large 50 basis point reduction.
The labor market continues to be an important indicator for gauging future Fed actions.

Labor Market Expectations:

Economists forecast that the U.S. added 144,000 new jobs in October.
Investors are hoping for data that will confirm a “soft landing” scenario for the economy, in which inflation is controlled without significantly damaging growth.
Weak data could increase recession fears, while strong data could increase the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates less aggressively to avoid a spike in inflation.

Jerome Powell Speech:

Fed Chairman Powell will deliver his economic outlook on Monday.
Analysts expect his comments to largely echo his recent remarks about risks to the labor market and the need to control inflation.

Quarterly Labor Market Data:

The JOLTS report will be released on Tuesday and ADP private sector hiring data on Wednesday, providing a broader view of labor market conditions ahead of Friday’s report.

Fourth Quarter Starts:

The fourth quarter began after a turbulent August and steady gains in the stock markets.
Stock indexes have hit new highs, the cost of oil and global borrowing are down 15%, and China has begun to stimulate its economy more aggressively.

Eurozone Inflation:

Eurozone inflation is expected to fall to 1.9%, below the ECB’s target, which could influence the decision to cut rates in October.

Oil prices:

Oil prices rose on Friday but declined for the week amid concerns about a glut in the market and China’s stimulus for economic growth.
OPEC+ plans to increase production from December despite concerns about supply disruptions amid tensions in the Middle East.

Weekly Events Schedule

Monday, 30 September /////

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: Provides insights into the health of manufacturing in the Texas region.
UK Money Supply Data: Important for understanding liquidity trends in the UK economy.

Tuesday, 1 October /////

US JOLTS Job Openings: A significant report that shows the number of job vacancies and provides insight into labor demand.
Eurozone Flash Inflation: Key data to monitor inflationary pressures and the European Central Bank’s next steps.

Wednesday, 2 October /////

US ADP Employment Report: A precursor to the official nonfarm payrolls, offering early insight into private sector job growth.
US MBA Mortgage Applications: Reflects demand trends in the housing market.

Thursday, 3 October /////

US Factory Orders: Offers data on demand for manufactured goods, providing insight into industrial activity.
US ISM Services PMI: Key report on the health of the service sector, which comprises a significant portion of the U.S. economy.

Friday, 4 October /////

US Nonfarm Payrolls: The major labor market report of the week, providing data on employment, wages, and unemployment rate. This will be crucial for gauging future Federal Reserve policy

Volume analysis for the Euro, Oil and S&P500 futures are shown in the slides below.

Daily timeframes include volume support (indicated by green band) and resistance (indicated by red band).