EURO: Volume Analysis & Key Levels

This analytical review is not like any other you may have read before. 

Here you will not find answers as to why the market went up or down. 

All we need is the data from the stock exchange on the volume of trades at each price.

Simply put, we analyze which prices traders are interested in, which trend is being supported by players and which prices are being used to make large trades. 

Ahead is a chart of the EURO FX futures contract, or EUR/USD if you prefer.

• Time frame – Day. 

• Period – 12/01 – 15/04/2024

• Type of chart – volume profile. 

• Bottom and left histograms – Volume & Delta.

• Red & green circles – large trades over 200 contracts.

The current contract continues its downward trend. 

Sellers have continued to dominate over the past week. 

Strong pressure from their side allowed the range to extend below the March low of 1.07.  

The fall from 1.09 to 1.065 was accompanied by increased trading volume. 

The trading sessions of the 10th, 11th and 12th of April are the most liquid in the current contract. 

The total volume traded was 787k contracts. 

Last week’s volume levels are marked on the second slide. 

The range of last week’s volume core is 1.086 – 1.091 (marked on the slide).

 

The second volume cluster is in the range of 1.075 – 1.07825. 

At the moment both these areas should be considered as volume resistance levels. 

These areas have also seen heavy selling – they are marked with red circles on the chart. 

 

The third area of volume activity 1.0665 – 1.0685 is the weakest in terms of volume activity. 

In this case, it is worth considering that after such volatility, some traders will be taking profits on Friday. 

 

Bottom line

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The sharp drop and the widening of the price range by sellers to the 1.065 level took place on the increased liquidity. 

There was a lot of selling activity. The 1.075-1.078 area is currently an important volume resistance level. 

If sellers maintain price control and do not allow the rate to return above this range – the downward trend will continue in the near future. One of the major factors that may influence traders’ activity is this week’s EU summit. 

Financial risks related to Iran’s attack on Israel and Russia’s attack on Ukraine should also be added to the mix.