June 3, Economic Pulse Check: Key Data Highlights and Market Outlook

Market overview: analyst’s view

Markets:

• U.S. futures are trading mixed ahead of a new month of trading.
• Investors are awaiting the release of a key U.S. jobs report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s attitude toward a possible interest rate cut this year.
• Dow futures were down 0.1%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.4%.
• In May, the Dow rose 2.4%, the S&P 500 rose 4.8% and the Nasdaq rose 6.9%.

 

Economics:

• The U.S. jobs report is expected to show that the U.S. labor market remained resilient in the face of an interest rate hike in May.
• Economists forecast that the economy added 185,000 jobs during the month.
• The market is worried that too strong an economy could prevent the Fed from cutting rates this year.
• A weak jobs report could hint at a softening in the overall economy.

 

Technology:

• Nvidia has unveiled its latest line of chips optimized for artificial intelligence.
• Nvidia aims to maintain a yearly frequency of new models to combat increasing competition.
• Nvidia’s newest chip architecture is called Ruby.
• It will start shipping in 2026.

China:

• Manufacturing activity in China rose more than expected in May, private business activity index data showed.
• Caixin’s manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7 in May.
• This figure contrasts largely with the official PMI released on Friday.

 

Oil:

• Oil prices rose slightly after OPEC+ extended the current production cut agreement until next year.
• OPEC+ decided to extend the current production cut of 5.86 million barrels per day until 2025.

---

Economic Calendar Events:

Monday, June 3, 2024

• All Day: Day Off (New Zealand – King’s Birthday)
• USD – Manufacturing PMI (May): expected 50.9 (previous reading 50.0)
• USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): expected 49.8 (previous reading 49.2)

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

• USD – JOLTS Labor Market Openings (Apr): expected 8.400M (previous value 8.488M)

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

• USD – ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change (May): expected 175K (previous reading 192K)
• USD – Services PMI (May): expected 54.8 (previous reading 51.3)
• CAD – Interest Rate Decision: expected 5.00% (previous: 4.75%)
• USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Supply Managers Index (May): expected 50.5 (previous reading 49.4)
• USD – Crude Oil Inventories: expected – 4.156M

Thursday, June 6, 2024

• EUR – Deposit Funds Rate (June): expected 4.00% (previous value 3.75%)
• EUR – Interest Rate Decision (June): expected 4.50% (previous value 4.25%)
• USD – Initial Jobless Claims: expected 219K (previous 215K)
• EUR – ECB Press Conference

Friday, June 7, 2024

• USD – Average hourly earnings (m/m) (May): expected 0.3% (previous 0.2%)
• USD – Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (May): expected 175K (previous estimate 185K)
• USD – Unemployment Rate (May): expected 3.9% (previous 3.9%)

---

Key volume support and resistance levels

 

Volume analysis of futures contracts such as: Euro, BTC, Oil, S&P500 index.

On all charts volume support levels are marked in green color, and resistance levels are marked in red color. Each volume analysis level is indicated by two prices, as the levels are price ranges.