August 19, Economic Pulse – Key Events This Week

Key Events This Week

The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision

On August 22, Thursday the ECB will meet to decide on the key interest rate. With high inflation and slowing economic growth, any rate change could have a significant impact on European markets and the Euro.

People’s Bank of China’s benchmark lending rate – forecast 3.35%

August 20 , Tuesday – Currently, the benchmark lending rate is formed based on rates with two loan maturities: one year and over five years. 18 banks are the data providers for the formation of the benchmark lending rate.

OPEC World Oil Market Report

OPEC’s monthly report is expected to provide an update on production, demand and supply in the global oil market. This may cause fluctuations in oil prices and oil futures.

German 10-year treasury bond auction

Aug. 21 – Yield fluctuations are closely watched as an indicator of government debt. Investors compare the average bidding rate with the previous bidding rate of the same paper.

Publication of FOMC minutes

August 21, Wednesday – Although the main FOMC meeting has already passed, several committee members are expected to speak this week, which could provide additional signals about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S.

August 22 – Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US

Typically, a change of at least 35,000 signals a significant change in job growth.

A reading above expected is seen as a negative/bear market for the USD, while a reading below expected indicates a positive/bull direction for the USD.

Developments in the cryptocurrency market

New Regulatory Rules

Discussions continue in the US on new rules for the regulation of cryptocurrency assets. In the center of attention are draft laws concerning the classification of tokens and requirements for their registration. The possible tightening of regulation may put pressure on the market, especially on companies involved in crypto trading and token issuance.

Launch of new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to decide this week whether to launch new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on cryptocurrencies. If approved, these could spur an influx of institutional investment in cryptocurrencies, driving up their value.

Binance and Coinbase

Major cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase continue to face legal challenges and investigations. New findings on these issues could cause volatility in the market as participants will be assessing the risks to these platforms.

Conclusion

These developments this week are setting the stage for significant volatility in the stock and futures markets. Investors are advised to monitor these events closely and adapt their strategies based on developing events.

The slides below show volume analysis of Euro, Oil and S&P500 futures contracts.

Daily timeframe charts include volumetric support levels (indicated by the green coloured price range) and resistance levels (indicated by the red coloured price range).

Resistance (indicated by the red coloured price range).