Analytics,  VolFix

đź’«Economic Pulse Check: Key Data Highlights and Market Outlook

Not much economic data is expected this week.

 

The key events are the 20-year Treasury bond auction, the release of the Fed minutes and Nvidia earnings, which occur on Wednesday.

 

Monday and Tuesday will be dominated by speeches from FRB Atlanta President Rafael Bostic.

He will speak on both days, with additional appearances on Thursday.

 

Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller will also speak this week, discussing the economic outlook on Tuesday and monetary policy on Friday.

Traders believe the neutral rate (R*) is higher than the Fed thinks, pointing to rising commodity prices such as copper as evidence.

They expect inflation to rise further and believe the Fed will have to tighten policy more aggressively.

 

The possibility of higher oil prices is high and how this could further boost inflation.

Fed chief Waller will confirm a higher neutral rate on Friday, but this is just a guess.

 

Over the past week, the stock market has shown gains in almost all sectors.

The Technology sector was the most in demand and posted a 3.68% gain.

The Energy sector was the least performing sector at 0%.

 


The stock market looks strong!

The breakdown:

  • S&P 500 hits new high: The index is showing a healthy uptrend, with many stocks performing well.
  • Broad market strength. Although some sectors are lagging, the overall strength suggests it’s neither too early nor too late in the economic cycle.
  • S&P 500 target: Analysts predict the index could reach 5550-5600 next time around.
  • Bitcoin on the rise: Bitcoin’s recovery suggests high investor confidence.
  • China market: After a difficult period, the Chinese market is experiencing a potential “strategic turnaround”.
  • Overall, the market outlook is positive, with both traditional stocks and bitcoin showing bullish signs. Keep an eye on developments in the Chinese market as they could have a significant impact.

 

Economic Calendar Events:

Wednesday

  • Central Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
  • British Consumer Price Index
  • US Crude Oil Inventories
  • FOMC Minutes

Thursday

  • Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the USA
  • Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the USA
  • US New Home Sales

Friday

  • German GDP 1.qtr

Volume analysis of such futures contracts as: Euro, Pound, Oil, Gold, S&P500 index.

On all charts, volume support levels are marked in green color, and resistance levels are marked in red color. Each volume analysis level is indicated by two prices, as the levels are price ranges.

 

Key volume support and resistance levels

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